PFLPhysiological Fitness Landscape

Biomarkers · Cardiac & Hemodynamics

Resting Heart Rate (RHR)

Lower values go with lower risk of death. In NHANES 1999–2018 with linked mortality to 2019, each standard deviation above average goes with 21% higher risk of death. We found the same pattern in NHANES

RHR and risk of death

NHANES, our fit with 95% CIPublished curve

Published curve higher than the NHANES fitNHANES fit higher

Risk of death relative to each curve's own reference value, so the two curves need not cross 1 at the same point. The dotted vertical line marks the NHANES median.

Risk of death per SD (NHANES)1.21×95% CI 1.19–1.24 · 49,576 adults, 7,365 deaths
Published risk of death1.09×per 10 beats/min increment of resting heart rate (95% CI 1.07–1.12) · Meta-analysis of 46 prospective cohort studies in the general population (1,246,203 participants, 78,349 all-cause deaths)
Value of the measurement+0.015gain in concordance within age bands; rank 25 of 56 · all tests
Across studies, risk per SD1.21×NHANES 1.21 [1.19–1.24] · HRS 1.20 [1.17–1.23]

RHR across cohorts

11.11.25HR per SD (95% CI)
NHANES · United States, 20–8449,576 people · 7,365 deaths1.21 1.19–1.24
HRS · United States, 50+24,149 people · 8,515 deaths1.20 1.17–1.23
CHARLS · China, 50+10,437 people · 1,710 deaths1.24 1.15–1.33
Risk-of-death ratio per standard deviation, adjusted for age and sex, within each cohort. Cohorts differ in age range, assay, measurement protocol and follow-up, and one SD is a different amount in each, so the comparison is of direction and rough size per SD, not per unit. Vertical line: no association.

RHR by age and sex

Each bar runs from the 5th to the 95th percentile, the darker part from the 25th to the 75th, and the tick is the median. Not a reference range or a target.

The percentiles as a table
Each row is one sex and age band: the values below which 5%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 95% of people fall (bpm), from the survey named in the row. Not a reference range or a target.
SexAge5th25thMedian75th95thnCycle / source
All20-3956.066.072.080.092.01,455NHANES 2017-2018
All40-5956.064.072.078.092.01,576NHANES 2017-2018
All60+54.062.068.076.090.01,935NHANES 2017-2018
Allall56.064.072.078.092.04,966NHANES 2017-2018
Men20-3954.062.070.078.092.0706NHANES 2017-2018
Men40-5956.062.072.078.094.0744NHANES 2017-2018
Men60+52.060.066.074.090.0985NHANES 2017-2018
Menall54.062.070.078.092.02,435NHANES 2017-2018
Women20-3958.068.074.082.094.0749NHANES 2017-2018
Women40-5958.064.070.080.092.0832NHANES 2017-2018
Women60+56.064.070.076.088.0950NHANES 2017-2018
Womenall56.766.072.080.092.02,531NHANES 2017-2018

What studies found when this marker was changed

They describe what happened in those study groups, not a recommendation. See all catalogued interventions.

Measured changes in RHR, study by study

4 effects with a numeric size, each from one study arm: the dot is the reported change, the line its 95% interval where one was given. Green points move the marker the way lower risk of death lies; amber the other way. Study results in the groups studied, not predictions for a person.

Each row is one study: what was changed, the effect it reported on this marker, and the source.
TypeInterventionReported effectEvidenceSource
exerciseEndurance training / Aerobic conditioningEndurance training significantly decreased resting heart rate in both sexes (effect size not reported)meta-analysisReimers AK, et al. Effects of Exercise on the Resting Heart Rate: A Systematic…
exerciseTwelve weeks of combined aerobic and resistance training (60-min sessions including warm-up/cool-down) in sedentary hypertensive menResting heart rate fell 8.17 bpm after 12 weeks of combined training (also SBP -17.75, DBP -12.5 mmHg, weight -7.92 kg)RCTAlemayehu A, Teferi G. Effectiveness of Aerobic, Resistance, and Combined…
pharmacologicBeta-blockers in heart failure with systolic dysfunctionBeta-blockers reduce resting heart rate; every 5 beats/min reduction associated with 18% lower risk of death (mean heart rate change not reported)meta-analysisMcAlister FA, et al. Meta-analysis: beta-blocker dose, heart rate reduction…
pharmacologicSinoatrial funny channel inhibitor (Ivabradine 5-7.5 mg)Reduced heart rate by 12.21 bpm (95% CI -15.47 to -8.96) vs placebo in HFrEF (nine RCTs)meta-analysisWaranugraha Y, et al. A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Randomised…

Things that worsen it

Each row is one study: what was changed, the effect it reported on this marker, and the source.
TypeCondition or exposureReported effectEvidenceSource
dietHigh nicotine intake (acute nicotine exposure)IV nicotine raised HR ~10 bpm (95% CI 7.8-12.3) at one minute and 13 bpm (95% CI 11.0-15.2) at two minutes in 213 smokersnon-randomised trialJensen KP, et al. Biochemical, demographic, and self-reported tobacco-related…
lifestyleProlonged bed rest (physical deconditioning)60 day head-down-tilt bed rest raised resting HR by 8.3 ± 6.3 b.p.m. (24 healthy persons)non-randomised trialHoffmann F, et al. Cardiac adaptations to 60 day head-down-tilt bed rest…

What else moves this marker

They describe those study groups, not an individual, and an association is not a cause.

Environmental and occupational exposures

Each row is one study: what it compared and the change it reported in this marker.
WhatEffect on the markerComparison · populationSource
↓ Daily cannabis use · daily use vs no current use-2.1 bpm (95% CI -3 to -1.3)daily cannabis use vs no current use · CARDIA cohort: 5115 Black and white US adults followed 30 years (35,654 examinations)prospective cohort · PMID 35245494

Day-to-day noise on a wearable

How much a single day's resting heart rate from a consumer wearable moves around a person's own level, from months of free-living data in open datasets (same measure (device estimate)). ICC is the share of variation that is between people: near 1, one day tells people apart; near 0, it is mostly noise. The smallest detectable change (95%) is the change a single day, or a 7-day mean, must exceed before it is more than noise. Days to average assumes days are independent; for resting heart rate they are not, so the true number is larger.

Each row is one open dataset: how much a single day's reading varies within a person, and how many days to average.
DatasetPeople · person-daysWithin-person SDICC: one day · 7-day meanDetectable change: one day · 7-day meanDays to average
LifeSnaps66 · 4,3892.68 bpm0.87 · 0.987.42 · 2.8114 for 2.00 bpm
PMData14 · 1,6582.31 bpm0.89 · 0.986.41 · 2.4211 for 2.00 bpm