PFLPhysiological Fitness Landscape

Biomarkers · Anthropometric

Waist Circumference

Lower values go with lower risk of death. In NHANES 1999–2018 with linked mortality to 2019, each standard deviation above average goes with 9% higher risk of death. We found the same pattern in NHANES

Waist Circumference and risk of death

NHANES, our fit with 95% CIPublished curve

Published curve higher than the NHANES fitNHANES fit higher

Risk of death relative to each curve's own reference value, so the two curves need not cross 1 at the same point. The dotted vertical line marks the NHANES median.

Risk of death per SD (NHANES)1.09×95% CI 1.06–1.12 · 48,783 adults, 6,811 deaths
Published risk of death1.11×per 10 cm increase in waist circumference (95% CI 1.08–1.13) · Dose-response meta-analysis of 72 prospective general-population cohorts (2,528,297 participants); waist circumference pooled from 50 studies
Value of the measurement+0.012gain in concordance within age bands; rank 32 of 56 · all tests
Across studies, risk per SD1.09×NHANES 1.09 [1.06–1.12] · CRELES 1.14 [1.00–1.31] · HRS 1.17 [1.13–1.22]

Waist Circumference across cohorts

0.80.911.11.25HR per SD (95% CI)
NHANES · United States, 20–8448,783 people · 6,811 deaths1.09 1.06–1.12
CRELES · Costa Rica, 60+2,466 people · 448 deaths1.14 1.00–1.31
HRS · United States, 50+*23,958 people · 8,355 deaths1.17 1.13–1.22
CHARLS · China, 50+*10,332 people · 1,697 deaths0.90 0.83–0.98
Risk-of-death ratio per standard deviation, adjusted for age and sex, within each cohort. Cohorts differ in age range, assay, measurement protocol and follow-up, and one SD is a different amount in each, so the comparison is of direction and rough size per SD, not per unit. Vertical line: no association.

* Measured differently from NHANES (see the note on the row); compare direction more than size.

Waist Circumference by age and sex

Each bar runs from the 5th to the 95th percentile, the darker part from the 25th to the 75th, and the tick is the median. Not a reference range or a target.

The percentiles as a table
Each row is one sex and age band: the values below which 5%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 95% of people fall (cm), from the survey named in the row. Not a reference range or a target.
SexAge5th25thMedian75th95thnCycle / source
All20-3971.882.793.61081301,465NHANES 2017-2018
All40-5977.290.51011131341,579NHANES 2017-2018
All60+79.893.41031141301,849NHANES 2017-2018
Allall74.488.299.31121324,893NHANES 2017-2018
Men20-3974.585.495.4109130709NHANES 2017-2018
Men40-5983.894.8104114137747NHANES 2017-2018
Men60+83.797.2107116134953NHANES 2017-2018
Menall77.691.91021131332,409NHANES 2017-2018
Women20-3970.579.991.3106131756NHANES 2017-2018
Women40-5973.685.996.6111130832NHANES 2017-2018
Women60+78.090.399.8111126896NHANES 2017-2018
Womenall72.685.296.31101302,484NHANES 2017-2018

What studies found when this marker was changed

They describe what happened in those study groups, not a recommendation. See all catalogued interventions.

Measured changes in Waist Circumference, study by study

5 effects with a numeric size, each from one study arm: the dot is the reported change, the line its 95% interval where one was given. Green points move the marker the way lower risk of death lies; amber the other way. Study results in the groups studied, not predictions for a person.

Each row is one study: what was changed, the effect it reported on this marker, and the source.
TypeInterventionReported effectEvidenceSource
clinicalElectro-acupuncture at eight abdominal/leg acupoints twice weekly for 8 weeks in adults with central obesityWaist circumference MD -1.1 cm vs sham over treatment and follow-upRCTLam TF, et al. BMC Complement Med Ther. 2024. Electro-acupuncture for central…
dietIntermittent fasting regimens lasting at least 6 months in adults with overweight or obesity (24 trials)Waist circumference WMD -3.85 cm vs control diet; body weight -2.84 kg, fat mass -3.06 kgmeta-analysisKhalafi M, et al. Obes Rev. 2025. Longer-term effects of intermittent fasting…
pharmacologicGLP-1 receptor agonist therapy in non-diabetic adults with overweight or obesity (41 RCTs)Waist circumference MD -4.302 cm (CI -5.185 to -3.419) vs controls; body weight MD -5.319 kgmeta-analysisLiu Y, Ruan B, Jiang H, et al. The Weight-loss Effect of GLP-1RAs Glucagon-Like…
pharmacologicContinuing once-weekly subcutaneous semaglutide 2.4 mg for 48 weeks after a 20-week run-in, vs switching to placebo, with lifestyle interventionWaist circumference -9.7 cm (95% CI -10.9 to -8.5) vs placebo from week 20 to week 68RCTRubino D, et al. JAMA. 2021. Effect of Continued Weekly Subcutaneous…
pharmacologicIntravenous bimagrumab 10 mg/kg (max 1200 mg) every 4 weeks for 48 weeks with diet and exercise counselling in adults with type 2 diabetes and obesityWaist circumference -9.0 cm (80% CI -10.3 to -7.7) vs 0.5 cm with placebo at 48 weeks; fat mass -7.5 kg, lean mass 1.70 kgRCTHeymsfield SB, et al. JAMA Netw Open. 2021. Effect of Bimagrumab vs Placebo on…

Sources

Map Waist Circumference against another biomarker.

Related markers: Appendicular Lean Mass / Sarcopenia Index · Basal Metabolic Rate · Body Fat Percentage · Body Mass Index (BMI) · Body Weight · Calf Circumference · Fat Mass · Fat-Free Mass

Map Waist Circumference against another marker