Work with us
What we already have
Six studies in hand: NHANES, HRS, Wisconsin Longitudinal Study, ELSA, CRELES, MIDUS. Details of each study.
We need a second long-term study
Our results on how people change over time come from 16 years of the Health and Retirement Study. Before we claim the map predicts individual routes, that finding has to hold in another study. We are looking for studies with:
- repeated biomarker measurements, ideally three or more timepoints
- routine clinical markers: lipids, glucose, HbA1c, creatinine or eGFR, CRP, blood pressure
- linked death or major-event outcomes
- any country; non-US studies are especially valuable
What we offer: an analysis plan registered and agreed with you before any data is accessed, co-authorship for study teams, and analysis run inside your environment if data cannot leave it.
Contact: Matthew Halma · [email protected]
Health systems
Dense routine labs can test whether the map improves on current risk scores. A retrospective check inside your environment is the first step.
Funders
Five stages. Each one starts only if the stage before it meets its "proceed if" test.
- DoneCatalogue
The test Published patterns show up again in a national sample.
Proceed if Most published directions match. Result
- RunningVariability pilot
The test Ups and downs within a person predict death beyond their level and trend (HRS).
Proceed if The test registered at osf.io/kzfs4 passes.
- Needs fundingOne shared map
The test Shared curves plus a few personal numbers predict individual paths on repeated blood tests in large cohorts.
Proceed if Predicts individual paths better than baseline risk, by a margin published before the data arrive.
- Partner discussionsHealth-system test
The test A look back at routine labs inside a partner's environment.
Proceed if Beats current risk scores.
- Design onlyProspective pilot
The test Measure, place on the map, intervene and measure again in a small group.
Proceed if Stages 3 and 4 both pass.
The stages as a table
| Stage | The test | Proceed if | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Catalogue | Published patterns show up again in a national sample | Most published directions match | Done (result) |
| 2. Variability pilot | Ups and downs within a person predict death beyond their level and trend (HRS) | The test registered at osf.io/kzfs4 | Analysis running |
| 3. One shared map | Shared curves plus a few personal numbers predict individual paths on repeated blood tests in large cohorts | Predicts individual paths better than baseline risk, by a margin published before the data arrive | Needs funding |
| 4. Health-system test | A look back at routine labs inside a partner's environment | Beats current risk scores | Partner discussions |
| 5. Prospective pilot | Measure, place on the map, intervene and measure again in a small group | Stages 3 and 4 both pass | Design only |
Stage 3 is budgeted at $400,000 over 12 months:
- a data scientist
- data access and secure compute
- the open platform
- design of the prospective pilot
If stage 3 fails its registered threshold, the result is published and unspent funds are returned or redirected at the funder's choice. Funders receive the same thing as everyone else, sooner.
Funders: use the form below; "Funder" is chosen for you.
Get in touch
[email protected]
Methods people and contributors: start with the open problems.